Climate Projections
As temperatures rise, glaciers retreat and meltwater accumulates β causing glacial lakes to expand and their moraine dams to weaken. This page projects lake area to 2100 under two IPCC emissions pathways: RCP 4.5 (strong mitigation, peak warming ~2Β°C) and RCP 8.5 (high emissions, peak warming ~4Β°C). Larger lakes exert greater hydrostatic pressure on their dams, directly raising outburst flood probability.
2050 projections
2100 projections
Source: Kraaijenbrink et al. (2017) β Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia's glaciers. Nature, 549, 257-260. RCP 4.5 increment: +0.008/yr; RCP 8.5 increment: +0.014/yr above observed growth rate. Uncertainty bands represent Β±1Ο from the published variance.
β οΈ Demonstration data β the starting area and observed growth rate are simulated. Note also that this is unconstrained exponential growth: it has no basin, dam-freeboard or meltwater limit, so values compound indefinitely and the late-century end of the curve should be read as a trend direction, not a forecast.